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This Could Change Everything 😲
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For the 9th December 2024:
This Could Change Everything 😲
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This Could Change Everything 😲
I love investing in China. Especially when they give a hint that they’re getting ready to turn the money printers on.
The Politburo, the VIP section of China’s government, the policy makers, announced a major shift in China’s economic game plan. They’re moving from a “prudent” monetary policy to a “moderately loose” one.
China’s new policies are making the headlines
They haven’t uttered those words in 2010. Here’s what it means for you & your money.
What Does it Mean? 🤔
“Moderately loose” translates to “let’s get the money pumping”.
So how are they going to do it?
First up is interest rates. China’s base rate is over 3% so they’ve got plenty of wiggle room for cuts. Lower interest rates = cheaper money.
Today’s news puts the China50 in the green for the months, up over 6% on the day
Cheap money gets an economy moving. People borrow more, spend more & guess what that means for stock prices?
Theory says they’ll go up from higher revenues from the spending & bigger margins from cheaper debt.
And China are cutting reserve requirements for banks. That means the banks need less cash on hand so can lend more. See above for what happens when people borrow more. 😅
Government spending is also promised to be on the rise. Expect infrastructure projects, subsidies & direct support for sectors that have been struggling like property. All this extra spending creates jobs, increases consumer confidence, people spend more etc. etc.
You get the point. Now what?
The Market Loved It 🎉
I loved the news. The market loved the news. Green candles all around for anything out of China.
Chinese stocks went wild today. SMCI the only US stock on my big gainers today
Hang Seng Index: Up 2.8%, its highest in a month. 🎉
Tech Stocks: Popped off. The Hang Seng Tech Index jumping 4.3%.
Big Winners: Alibaba (+9%), JD.com (+13%), NIO (+13%), PDD (+12.5%) Even stocks out of China but with a heavy link to them, popped. One of them I wrote about here a few days ago…. (it’s LVMH)
What’s the Endgame?🔮
The Politburo’s aim is to inject life into an economy that’s been hitting snooze since Covid.
But before we get carried away, China’s been here before. Earlier stimulus efforts hyped up the markets, only for it to fizzle out when consumers stayed cautious.
I will say, this time feels a little different. It feels more urgent. It could have something to do with Trump promising huge tariffs & the need pull out the big guns to prop up confidence before trade tensions set in.
I say this so that you don’t dump everything you own into every Chinese stock now for them to pull back in a few days or weeks. Everything in moderation.
My Plan 🗺️
If China follows through, this could be the start of a huge rally. If not? There’s still a few stocks I’m picking up for the long term anyway.They’re strong enough where they don’t necessarily have to rely on a huge stimulus to keep performing.
Funny enough, those also happen to be stocks I’m already invested in. I’m talking about PPD (my fave 💘), Jd.com, Alibaba. All of these stocks are price fair enough that there’s value to be had in the long term & we don’t have to rely on any gimmicks.
My China stocks & weightings (excluding PDD. I’ve bought the ADR on a US exchange)
I’m keeping an eye on sectors like tech, consumer goods, & property. There’s opportunity here.
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