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 Gainers📈 & Losers📉

Our Biggest Gainers & Losers of the Day in the $100,000 Build Portfolio

For the 14th November 2024:

• MEME Season is Back!☃️

• Mickey’s Secret Money Trick 🪄

MEME Season is Back!☃️ 

It’s 2024, & meme stocks have got their groove back… kinda.

I feel like I’m in the good old days of 2021. GameStop & AMC are back in the headlines, riding a rally based on…. not much.

I’m serious. Nobody really knows why they’re rallying. There’s a few thing’s we can point at that is some kind of good news but it feels more like HODL apes desperately trying to convince themselves we’re going back to $60+ & beyond.

That’s exactly why I’m back on the dark side. The short sellers! 🫢 

Let me explain myself.

 The OG Meme Stock is Back🎮

GameStop cranked up just shy of 20% in the last 7 days, currently at $27.37.

But, in classic GME style, there’s no groundbreaking news behind it. No record-breaking game releases, no earnings surprise. Just memes & dreams. 

A serious answer would be that GameStop CEO, Ryan Cohen, has been supporting Trump so him & his company are getting a taste of the “Trump Bump” just like Elon & Tesla.

It’s classic meme stock behavior & that’s why I’m shorting. These rallies built on nothing never last. There’s already been some big red candles thrown in the mix. It’s only a matter of time before one of them sticks & GameStop comes tumbling back down.

Even if you want to look at it logically (which really isn’t the best way to trade meme stocks. I’m not sure there is a best way. Anyway…) it’s P/E ratio is currently at 212x! Paying $212 for every dollar earned in a company who’s biggest earner is the interest on their cash pile is just….. stupid very silly.

B-Bu-But what about the Short Squeeze?! 😨 

I get it. The little guys want to stick it to the man again. I’m a little guy, too. But I also want to make money. Things were different in 2021. When the insane 2021 short squeeze happened, over 100% of GME’s float was short. Today it’s only 9.25%.

That’s over ten times less.

That just isn’t enough juice to cause any kind of meaningful rally. Even in a worst (or best case scenario, depending on which side you’re on) it wouldn’t hold a light to the 2021 rally.

(If you want to try your hand at buying & hoping for short squeezes, you can see the most shorted stocks on the market here. Disclaimer: this is best done for fun & not with the expectation you’ll get rich)

I’m confident in these shorts & put a good portion of the portfolio to them. Just shy of 4% right now. My first target is $22 then $19.50 if it looks bearish but don’t get me wrong…

This is Risky🚨 

As confident as I am, there’s no such thing as a sure thing. There’s a few risk with GME in particular.

First of all, all it takes is a Roaring Kitty tweet to get the apes frothing at the mouth, making fists on their keyboard until it hits “Buy GME” sending thing’s even higher. Truth be told, I think he still has that kind of leverage but less than what it once was.

GME are also sitting on some cash. Quite a lot of cash, actually. Last time their share price spiked they issued a bunch of stock to sell up leaving them with $4 billion. So far, they haven’t done much with it other than collect interest payments & pay down debts.

But this much cash with little to no debt gives you a lot of flexibility. If they drastically change the business model or make investments to the degree it would change the whole valuation of the company, that could leave my shorts in the dust.

Again, at a 212x PE ratio it’s unlikely but something to be aware of.

They also have earnings coming up on the 4th December. They pretty consistently miss earnings expectations but if it’s even remotely positive it could give the stock a fresh boost.

So that’s the full story. The risks are there but I think a small bet on the shorts should pay off again…

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Mickey’s Secret Money Trick 🪄 

What can I say. The mouse know’s how to make money.

Disney just had its best day post-earnings in years. The stock was up nearly as high as 12% at some points today but settled at 6.23% gain.

So what’s got everyone blowing the dust off their Mickey eye’s & dancing the Mickey Mouse Clubhouse tunes?

Revenue + Earnings Jumping Like Crazy💰

In short, the numbers that matter came in with all the sparkle & magic you’d expect from the Magic Kingdom. It was a checklist of wins. I’ll let the numbers speak for themselves

• Revenue grew 6%

• Earnings per share (EPS) beat estimates by 3%

• Operating income up 23% (for the year, a whole 21%)

Impressive, right? So where did the wins come from?

Movies Bringing in Big Bucks🎥

This was one of Disney’s best quarters ever for movies. That’s a pretty crazy statement when you think of all the classics they’ve produced. A lot of that credit can be given to these two.

 Inside Out 2 & Deadpool & Wolverine.

Both pulled over a billion globally.

I contributed to that by going to see Inside Out 2 at cinemas. Haven’t seen Deadpool & Wolverine yet. I’ll let you decide what that says about me as a person….

(Want 30 days free of Amazon Prime to give these movies a watch? Get a 30 day free trial here!)

Streaming Subs Poppin’ Off📺

Bob Iger has had streaming success at the top of his list the moment he came back to Disney. Whatever he’s been up to, it looks like it’s working.

Disney+ core subscribers are up 4% to 122.7M (beat forecasts by almost 3M!). Hulu is up to 52M subs.

It’s not all magic in this department, though.

ESPN dropped to 66M subscribers from 71M last year. Sports streaming is a competitive space but they’ve got some solid partnerships in place so it’ll be interesting to keep an eye on that subscriber number over the next few quarters.

Speaking of solid partnerships, this one has some huge potential if it goes right.

Disney have locked in an $8.5B joint venture with Reliance in India. India is one of the biggest entertainment markets on the planet.

Reliance already have a presence in the Indian film market & have their fingers on the pulse of what people want. Collaborating rather than competing will work out best for everyone involved.

…Now What?🗓️

More of the same, I guess.

Disney’s forecasting high single-digit profit growth for 2025 & double-digit EPS growth in 2026 & 2027.

Wall street are eating it up. I am too.

Billion dollar blockbuster movies, gains in the streaming space & a whole theme park empire. Why would this not make the cut into your portfolio?

Disney is currently one of my smaller holdings at 0.25% of the portfolio & is currently up over 16%. I’ll keep the weighting somewhere around there. If there’s a pullback on this rally, I might beef it up a little.

There’s also a small dividend yield at 0.76% to sweeten the deal if you think they’re worth holding, too.

That’s all! See you same time tomorrow 👋 

P.S Hit reply & let me know what you thought of today’s newsletter. All feedback is welcomed ❤️