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In this email:

• I’m Scared 😨

• Pets Are Expensive 🐶

I’m Scared 😨

It wouldn’t stop. Red day after red day. More Trump tariffs, more bad news. The fear & greed index went into overdrive.

Luckily, I’ve been doing this a while. I’m a grizzled vet. When I see extreme fear & big red days my eyes light up. This is where the money’s made. And you don’t get chances like this very often. You’ll see a big drop (~10%ish) once a year in the Nasdaq & yet people still run scared thinking this time is different.

This dropped bottomed out at just over 8%. Treasury yields crashed, recession fears ramped up & traders started screaming for rate cuts. I think the panic is just too much.

And if I’m right, the Nasdaq is about to rip higher & net me ~$6,000. Here’s why.

Reality Looks Better Than the Pricing ☀️

Right now, markets are trading like we’re already in a deep slowdown. But have you actually looked at the data? That’s not what’s happening.

🔹 ISM manufacturing report → Expected to dip slightly to 50.5, but that’s still expansion, not contraction.
🔹 February jobs report → Forecasts show job growth (+153K) & stable unemployment (4%)
🔹 Wage growth slowing → This is important. It means the Fed doesn’t have to keep ramping interest rates because lower wages put less pressure on inflation.

Want to know the best bit? We’ll get the answer to all the questions in the next week.

If data confirms the economy is still going strong, all the fear driven bets on falling rates come undone. Fast.

And that’s the perfect fuel for a massive rally in risk assets like tech.

Interest Rates Dropped Too Fast. That’s About to Reverse 📈

Markets overreacted (like they always do) to weak PMI & consumer confidence data which made yields drop hard. But the big question is…

Was the drop justified? 🤔 

I don’t think so. And if this week’s data proves the economy hasn’t shit the bed slowed down, rates will jump right back up. But this time, for the right reasons.

So what are the “right” reasons?

Well, if rates rise due to stronger economic growth, that’s not bad for stocks. In fact, it’s bullish for tech because:

✅ Growth stocks thrive when the economy is expanding.
✅ A strong economy means earnings keep improving for big tech.
✅ A “not-too-hot, not-too-cold” AKA Goldilocks environment is Nasdaq’s sweet spot.

The Dollar is Telling Us Rates Won’t Stay This Low 💵

Just like Trump, the dollar has a big mouth. It can tell us a lot.

Normally, when rates fall hard, the dollar weakens. But that’s not happening right now.

Why does that matter? Because a strong dollar gives us these clues.

• The market doesn’t fully believe in a deep rate-cutting cycle.

• The rate drop was temporary & yields will snap back up.

• When that happens, big tech will rally as traders reposition.

All markets love stability. Especially the Nasdaq. The way the dollars behaving makes me think rates aren’t on a one track road.

Inflation is Under Control (But Not Too Low) 🎯

Inflation is techs arch nemesis. Last year it was forcing the Fed to stay aggressive with rates. But there’s a shift happening now.

• Inflation swaps are still rising → This means inflation isn’t collapsing, but it’s not out of control either.

• Wage growth is slowing → This lowers pressure on the Fed to over correct like I mentioned earlier.

If this plays out how I think it will, we get the best-case scenario for tech.

✔️ Stable inflation (so no rate shocks)
✔️ Slower wage growth (so no overheating economy)
✔️ A strong but not unsustainable economic expansion.

This keeps the Fed neutral or ever so slightly dovish, which means growth stocks keep running. 🚀

Traders Are Positioned Wrong. That’s My Edge 🧠

Now this is where I feel like Michael Burry. (The guy from the Big Short. It’s a good movie. You should watch it. Anyway…)

The market is overweight bonds. Everyone’s expecting deep rate cuts.

But if this week’s data proves recession fear mongers & perma-bears wrong, traders will be forced to unwind those bets.

Where’s all that money going to go?

My bet is straight back in to high growth assets like, you guessed it.. the Nasdaq!

In short, the markets gone too bearish, too fast. When sentiment flips, I want to be in early so I can get a good seat.

How To Play It 🎮️ 

In the spirit of keeping growing the account fun & growing at a good pace, I’ve gone a little riskier than I would recommend you do.

I’ve put half of the account into Nasdaq futures. That’s 20x leverage.

If it pays off, that’ll net me around $6,000 or a 50% gain. That means I can take the rest of the year off risk & have back to back 50%+ years & we’ll finish year 2 with somewhere around $30,000.

I have enough liquidity to support the positions should we see a full blown bear market. That’s a drop of 20% or more from previous highs.

A slightly less-risky-still-risky move would be buying into TQQQ. It’s an ETF that tracks the Nasdaq that aims to give you 3x the returns. So the theory would be, if we return back to previous highs & the Nasdaq gains 6%, TQQQ will give you 18% returns. The opposite is also true for losses. They’re 3 times bigger.

Or you can be a steady Eddy & just use this drop to average into QQQ or similar ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 1:1. Whatever floats your boat.

Pets Are Expensive 🐶 

I found this one out the hard way.

I never had pet insurance for any of my animals. And then my dog got sick & I had to cough up over £10,000 in vet bills to keep him around.

It was worth it. But I could’ve done it a lot cheaper. Thank me later.

Could you pay $10,000 for a pet emergency?

Unexpected vet bills can be a financial burden, with some procedures costing $10,000+. Without coverage, you’d have to cover these expenses out of pocket.

Pet insurance companies can offer up to 90% reimbursement for covered claims, providing peace of mind and protection against expensive medical bills.

Don’t let unexpected vet bills stress you out. Protect your pet and your finances with top-rated pet insurance.

PROTECT YOUR PET

That’s all! See you same time next week 👋 

P.S Hit reply & let me know what you thought of this weeks newsletter. All feedback is welcomed ❤️