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- Don’t Do It ❌
Don’t Do It ❌
PLUS: Apple Building A New Brain 🧠
Gainers📈 & Losers📉
Our Biggest Gainers & Losers of the Day in the $100,000 Build Portfolio
For the 11th December 2024:
Don’t Do It ❌
Profit From Smart Homes 🧠 🏠️
Apple Building A New Brain 🧠
Don’t Do It ❌
It’s not worth it. Do not buy meme stocks.
Yes, there’s stories of people making insane amounts of money off of not very much. Do you know why you hear about them?
Because writing an article about another guy who lost his money trading volatile stocks isn’t nearly as interesting. The news doesn’t tell you about all the people who didn’t win the lottery. Just the one’s with the over-sized cheques. Same thing.
My current short positions in GME
I do, however, short meme stocks when they rally. I’ll tell you about it in the name of transparency with the portfolio but I want to be super clear. This is also very risky but I’ve found it to be reliable.
I’ve shorted GameStop 110 times with a win rate of 88%, average profit of over 45% & average loss of 14%.
My stats when it comes to GameStop
I closed up my existing shorts before market close yesterday because GameStop had it’s earnings report. I figured any good news would be an excuse for a rally & I didn’t want to be on the wrong side of it.
That’s exactly what happened. Let’s unpack it. 📦️
An Empty Health Bar 🪫
That’s probably the best way to describe the report. GameStop is like the final boss with just barely enough health left to keep fighting back.
Earnings beat by the smallest of margins. Revenue missed.
Revenue is in free-fall. They pulled in $860m this quarter which is down 20.2% from last year. The fingers being pointed at hardware sales falling 28% & software revenue sliding 15.4%.
Gross margins are up the best part of 4% from 26.1% to 29.9%. It’s a win. Not a huge one, but definitely in that column. It comes from culling a bunch of unprofitable stores & better cost management.
The star of the show was interest income on their huge $4.2billion cash pile. It generated $54m this quarter which is four times more than last year’s $12.9m.
Don’t let the memes get you!
How do they have so much cash? Not from business operations.
When shares rallied again this year because of Roaring Kitty, GameStop starting selling shares as fast as they could to raise cash. Good for a short term boost but diluting shareholders isn’t sustainable. That’s why it’s better to be on the short side….
So the narrow earnings beat alone was enough to justify an 8% after-market rally. Does that make any sense to you?
Nah, me neither.
In short:
Revenue tanked 20.2% YoY to $860M, missing expectations by $27.7M.
EPS surprised to the upside: $0.04 vs. analysts’ $0.07 loss estimate.
Gross profit margins. Up. Operational cash flow. Up.
Core business? Still struggling. EBITDA fell deeper into the red at -$11.2M. 😬
What’s Actually Working?
Define “working”. All the GME bagholders are pinning their hopes on the pivot into collectibles.
Sales in that segment only dropped 3.7% but they still dropped. They’ve teamed up with PSA (a trading card grading company) to provide the service in stores.
It’s worth remembering they tried to create an NFT marketplace that flopped. Granted collectible trading cards have been more reliable than NFTs but I still think this is another for the “short” option.
My Plan 🗺️
I’ve been adding short positions at market open today. Anything about $29 I think is relatively “safe” spot from previous price action.
Even if GameStop magically turns its EBITDA positive, it needs to print cash way faster to justify its current price.
You have to keep an eye on price action on the way down. If I see anything a little shaky, I’m always quick to close my positions. The price targets I like are $27, $25, $22.50, $20. There’s still way more potential on this if you’re brave enough to try & ride it down. I don’t think I am. 😅
$10 is the average price target among analysts which is over 65% down from current price. 🤯
$10 is the average price target among analysts
The joy of meme stocks is that they don’t typically trade at a value based on traditional metrics. It’s just all meme power. That said, not enough of the company is shorted to create the insane short squeeze we saw in 2021 so that risk is eliminated.
The biggest worry is Roaring Kitty rearing his head again but he done that recently & seems to have less pop every time. All these catalysts I use to add to my shorts positions.
Want a nostalgia buy? Or hope for another Reddit-fueled rocket ship? Sure, go for it.
But if you want a little more reliable way of profiting from meme stocks, being short is the way to do it.
Profit From Smart Homes 🧠 🏠️
This smart home company grew 200% month-over-month…
No, it’s not Ring or Nest—it’s RYSE, a leader in smart shade automation, and you can invest for just $1.75 per share.
RYSE’s innovative SmartShades have already transformed how people control their window coverings, bringing automation to homes without the need for expensive replacements. With 10 fully granted patents and a game-changing Amazon court judgment protecting their tech, RYSE is building a moat in a market projected to grow 23% annually.
This year alone, RYSE has seen revenue grow by 200% month-over-month and expanded into 127 Best Buy locations, with international markets on the horizon. Plus, with partnerships with major retailers like Home Depot and Lowe’s already in the works, they’re just getting started.
Now is your chance to invest in the company disrupting home automation—before they hit their next phase of explosive growth. But don’t wait; this opportunity won’t last long.
Apple Building A New Brain 🧠
I only just got done talking about Broadcom last week & they go & do it again!
Up 6.63% today off of news that they’re partnering with Apple
Why the big pop?
News broke that Apple’s teaming up with Broadcom to create its first-ever in-house AI server chip.
Baltra.
I think that name is terrible but we can expect it to be in production by 2026, with Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) handling the heavy lifting on the techy bits.
(I also wrote about TSM this month already here. Am I genius? Somebody call Mensa)
Ok that all sounds great. Clearly the market likes the news. But what exactly is Baltra going to do?
Inference tasks. Or if you want it in plain English, a chip that takes raw data, does some wizardry & spits out AI-generated magic. Think ChatGPT but smoother & faster behind the scenes.
The Market Moves 📈
Broadcom flew up 6.5%. Apple barely moved, TSM was up a little & Nvidia got a nice 3.5% bump.
Who invited Nvidia to the party?!
My current position in Nvidia
It’s because AI demand is relentless, & seeing more competition only makes their dominant positioning seem more exciting.
My Plan 🗺️
I can’t say it’s changed from when I covered all these stocks in the last couple of weeks. It just strengthens my beliefs.
The AI gold rush is far from over. 💰🤖
Between Nvidia, Apple, Broadcom & TSM they make up about 22% of my portfolio. No plans to change that any time soon.
Those four stocks make up nearly a quarter of the whole portfolio. It’s all green so I’m not complaining. 🤐
I’ll keep adding to these positions for the foreseeable. If anything changes, I’ll let you know. 😅
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That’s all! See you same time tomorrow 👋
P.S Hit reply & let me know what you thought of today’s newsletter. All feedback is welcomed ❤️
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